Ukraine lacks capacity to supplant China’s critical minerals supply: analysts

Despite a recent deal with Washington, it will take years before Ukraine can rival China as a top source of critical minerals for US production of hi-tech gear, green energy and aerospace hardware – which analysts said will still leave American companies scrambling to source the materials as Beijing restricts its supply amid trade disputes.

Most of Ukraine’s sought-after mineral stores are in parts of the country occupied by Russia after more than three years of war, the experts said, with the rest taking years to extract thanks to a lack of processing capacity.

China has about 60 per cent of the world’s reserves of rare earth elements and is responsible for about 90 per cent of all refining, which entails separating the metals from other deposits. It produced 270,000 tonnes of rare earths last year, according to the US Geological Survey (USGS).

The USGS considers 50 minerals to be critical, including the 17 rare earth elements.

“The scale is not comparable,” said Liang Yan, a professor of economics at Willamette University in the United States. Ukraine, she said, “doesn’t have tens of billions of mineral deposits. It’s also not just about the mineral deposit reserves, it’s also about processing power.”

Ukraine and the US signed a minerals deal on Wednesday after two months of tough negotiations. The White House described the pact as a continuation of American commitment to the war-torn country following an end to military aid.

The two sides will set up a fund to receive 50 per cent of royalties, licence fees, and other payments from natural resource projects in Ukraine according to the Donald Trump administration, which named “economic security” as the prime motivator for the deal.

South China Morning Post