While counterterrorism has always been high on the SCO’s agenda, the recent attacks would likely “focus attention back onto that challenge”, according to Ian Hall, professor of international relations at Griffith University in Brisbane, Australia.
The SCO – set up in 2001 by China, Russia and several former Soviet republics to ease border tensions – has traditionally emphasised battling the “three evils” – terrorism, separatism and extremism.
Moscow concert hall attackers first headed for Belarus, not Ukraine: Lukashenko
Moscow concert hall attackers first headed for Belarus, not Ukraine: Lukashenko
As the group expanded to include India, Pakistan and most recently Iran, its scope has broadened to include issues like economic cooperation.
The attack at the Crocus City Hall in Moscow, where gunmen opened fire, killing at least 140 people, was the deadliest assault in Russia in two decades.
Russian President Vladimir Putin vowed to punish those behind the attack, for which Islamic State Khorasan (Isis-K), an Afghanistan-based affiliate of the militant group Islamic State, has claimed responsibility.
China condemns Pakistan bombing that killed belt and road project workers
China condemns Pakistan bombing that killed belt and road project workers
Russia, Pakistan and Iran – each a member of the SCO – have now all seen attacks by Isis-K within their borders.
“Officially, anti-terrorism will be the headline theme” of the SCO, said David Arase, resident professor of international politics with the Hopkins-Nanjing Centre for Chinese and American Studies.
Isis-K epitomises China’s nightmare, the ‘three evils’ of terrorism, separatism and religious extremism
“If an actor beyond Central Asia like Russia has been attacked, so could China and its interests in Central Asia be targeted next,” Arase said.
“Isis-K epitomises China’s nightmare, the ‘three evils’ of terrorism, separatism and religious extremism, because [it] seeks an Islamic state under radical theocratic rule.”
But “amid conflicting interests and abiding distrust” deciding who did what within the organisation could be difficult, Arase said, adding that tensions between some member states had increased.
Deadly Moscow attack sparks online debate in China over tighter security net
Deadly Moscow attack sparks online debate in China over tighter security net
Thomas Wilkins, associate professor at the University of Sydney, agreed that counterterrorism would be a “major theme” of the SCO and “salient” in its agenda – “at Moscow’s behest”.
The terror attack in Russia perpetrated two of the “three evils” that the SCO was established to tackle, ticking the boxes of terrorism and religious extremism, he said.
The SCO already has a regional anti-terrorism structure for information sharing, and resources had been activated in response to the Moscow attacks, Wilkins said.
But even as the SCO seeks to do more to fight terrorism in the region, member states might see little reason to go all out.
I don’t think either China or Russia has the appetite for risky interventions in Afghanistan or Pakistan
Hall, from Griffith University, suggested it was unlikely that member countries would gamble on an “intervention”, such as sending armed police or military contingents into Afghanistan or Pakistan.
“I don’t think either China or Russia has the appetite for risky interventions in Afghanistan or Pakistan, where Isis-K and a range of other militant Islamist groups are based,” he said.
“Such action could lead to a lot more attacks on Chinese and Russian targets in Central Asia and beyond. Neither country really wants to see that – and especially Russia, given the cost of its ongoing war in Ukraine.”
While both Beijing and Moscow had maintained reasonably warm ties with the Taliban in Afghanistan and the government in Pakistan, Hall said there were no indications that either country would welcome foreign intervention in their internal affairs.
“Perhaps both [China and Russia] could use the SCO to pressure Afghanistan and Pakistan, but the organisation lacks leverage, to be blunt,” Hall said. “What will it use to create that pressure?”
Apart from prompting a response from the SCO, the recent terror attacks could also draw countries within the bloc closer as they pushed back against what they believed to be actions backed by the West, analysts said.
In the case of the terror attack in Moscow last month, Russian officials have accused not only Ukraine, but also the West of involvement, claiming that the United States and British intelligence helped Ukraine organise the assault.
“It is also indicative that the West began insisting on Ukraine’s noninvolvement in the crime as soon as the terrorist attack on Crocus City Hall was reported.”
Chinese President Xi Jinping has also, on multiple occasions, urged SCO countries to work together to prevent foreign powers from destabilising their countries by inciting uprisings.
“We must be highly vigilant against external forces fomenting a ‘new Cold War’ and creating confrontation in the region, and resolutely oppose any country interfering in internal affairs and staging a ‘colour revolution’ for any reason,” he said last year.
Asia’s terrorism surge: Isis-K awakens sleeper cells in deadly strategy shift
Asia’s terrorism surge: Isis-K awakens sleeper cells in deadly strategy shift
“But more than its institutional functions – the SCO serves the purpose of keeping Western powers, such as the US, at arm’s length from Central Asia, and creating a common platform against ‘Western hegemony’,” he said.
“Since its ongoing expansion, it forms a geopolitical bloc covering most of Eastern Eurasia, somewhat in counter to Western Eurasia’s Nato bloc.”
The SCO was formed partly with the aim of preventing “colour revolutions”, Wilkins said, adding that members continued to work closely to minimise such possibilities.
Moscow and Beijing want security and stability in supporting other authoritarian governments in their Central Asian ‘backyard’
“Moscow and Beijing want security and stability in supporting other authoritarian governments in their Central Asian ‘backyard’,” Wilkins said.
“It is not inconceivable that if a Central Asian government was endangered by a popular uprising or some form of coup, that Moscow and Beijing at least would provide material sustenance to an endangered regime, or even perhaps deploy SCO structures to intervene to prevent it.”
Li Lifan, head of the SCO centre at the Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences, said a convention signed by member states in 2017 to combat extremism showed a “firm determination” to tackle the “three evils”, adding that the SCO would help deepen cooperation among countries.
“Nowadays, the global security situation is complex, with extremist ideas constantly spreading,” he said. “Terrorist activities and regional wars have formed a ‘double active period’, posing serious challenges to regional national security and people’s lives and property security.”
After taking over as the rotating chair, China would not only strengthen regional counterterrorism cooperation, but also deal with transnational organised crime and modern technology crimes to “maintain regional and even global peace and stability”, he said.
