Red Sea attacks, Horn of Africa issues and war in Gaza set to dominate discussions during Wang Yi’s African trip

China’s foreign ministry said the purpose of the trip is to implement the follow-ups of the China-Africa Leaders’ Dialogue held in August last year, compare notes with the African side on the 2024 Forum on China–Africa Cooperation (FOCAC) and, “carry forward the traditional China-Africa friendship and consolidate the momentum of China-Africa solidarity and cooperation”.

Another Chinese official, Vice-Premier Liu Guozhong, will visit Uganda from January 15 to 24 for the 19th Non-Aligned Movement Summit and the Third South Summit of the Group of 77, a bloc of developing countries. He will also visit Algeria, Cameroon and Tanzania.

According to Tim Zajontz, a research fellow at the Centre for International and Comparative Politics at Stellenbosch University in South Africa, Egypt’s influence across the Middle East, as well as its geographical location at the intersection of Africa, Asia and Europe, make it an important geostrategic partner for Beijing.

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Zajontz said China has systematically intensified its diplomatic, economic and political ties with countries bordering the Red Sea, one of the world’s most important trading routes.

“We can expect that the continuous attacks on ships by the Yemeni Houthi rebels in the Red Sea will be on the agenda during Wang Yi’s Egypt visit,” said Zajontz, who is also a lecturer in international relations at the University of Freiburg in Germany.

“China’s foreign minister will try to further strengthen its new-found mediating role in the Middle East and discuss the war in Gaza,” he added.

Beijing has said it is saddened by the heavy civilian casualties caused by the ongoing conflict. China wants the parties to “reach an immediate and comprehensive ceasefire and stop the collective punishment against the people of Gaza”.

John Calabrese, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute in Washington, said Egypt, along with Qatar, is playing a key role in mediating the Israel-Gaza conflict.

“Discussions about this issue are a low-cost way for Beijing to display its interest in and offer support for Cairo’s efforts,” Calabrese said.

Houthis attacks on shipping are expected to be high on the agenda during Wang’s visit to Egypt. Photo: Reuters

He also noted that Chinese contract work, investment and lending has been considerable in recent years.

“Maintaining high-level dialogue is a way to help ensure these stakes are protected,” Calabrese said.

Zhou Yuyuan, a senior fellow and deputy director at the Centre for West Asian and African Studies at the Shanghai Institutes for International Studies, said as the regional security situation heats up, China would be on-hand to assist.

“China hopes to support regional powers such as Egypt to play a greater role in regional hotspot issues such as the Palestinian-Israeli conflict and Red Sea shipping crisis,” he said.

However, Zhou said the visits to Tunisia, Togo and Ivory Coast showed that China attaches great importance to its relations with all African countries.

He said there are vast differences between the four countries on the itinerary, in both economic size and level of development. Considering the context of the new Forum on China-Africa Cooperation this year, he said this also shows “China hopes to understand the demands of different countries, through which China wishes to design more effective cooperation plans and measures with Africa”.

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Benjamin Barton, an associate professor at the University of Nottingham’s Malaysia campus, said Egypt was playing a central role in a number of hotspot issues, ranging from Israel’s pursuit of Hamas in Gaza, to the talks over the building of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam – which Egypt and Sudan fear will restrict vital water supplies from the Nile – and the ongoing instability in Sudan.

“Egypt is a critical diplomatic player across various cross-regional dynamics and carries significant weight,” Barton said.

He said the Chinese foreign minister always tends to visit at least one major partner as part of his annual trip to the continent. Egypt is one of China’s major African trading partners as well as being a key player in the roll-out of the Belt and Road Initiative on the continent.

Barton said for the other countries on Wang’s itinerary, there is not much at stake other than a routine high-level official visit to keep generally positive ties ticking over.

Wang Yi’s visit to Tunisia may be done on purpose as a show of support, in case the situation gets worse. It might be a way of positioning China as a friend for Tunisia

Benjamin Barton

He said the only exception to that could be Tunisia, because the domestic situation is becoming untenable, with obvious democratic backsliding in the run-up to an electoral year.

“Wang Yi’s visit to Tunisia may be done on purpose as a show of support, in case the situation gets worse. It might be a way of positioning China as a friend for Tunisia,” Barton said. The visit also coincides with the 60th anniversary of Tunisia’s diplomatic relations with China.

Calabrese said given Tunisia’s precarious economic situation and ongoing political problems, in addition to the ill will across the Arab world and Global South towards the West for its response to the conflict in Gaza, Beijing might spot an opening to curry favour with the Tunisian government and its people.

“China presumably has its eye on Tunisia’s deepwater ports,” Calabrese said. “[But] it is worth noting that no large infrastructure projects of the kind we have seen elsewhere in the MENA [ Middle East and North Africa] region have thus far materialised in Tunisia.”

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He attributed this to the political turmoil and high level of corruption in the north African nation.

Calabrese said Ivory Coast could be considered a “ gateway to Africa”. He said China Eximbank provided most of the financing for the expansion of the country’s Port of Abidjan and related infrastructure.

Chinese companies such as China Harbour Engineering Company led the effort to construct at least one container terminal in the port modernisation scheme.

Meanwhile Zajontz said Wang’s Ivory Coast visit underscores that the country has become a key trade and logistics hub for China in West Africa.

“We can expect that both in Côte d’Ivoire [the country’s official name] and Togo, the security situation in the Sahel region will be discussed behind closed doors,” he said.

South China Morning Post