This deal would make Ethiopia the first nation to recognise the breakaway state.
“China supports the federal government of Somalia in safeguarding national unity, sovereignty and territorial integrity,” Chinese foreign ministry spokeswoman Mao Ning said on Thursday.
“Meanwhile, we hope that regional countries will handle regional affairs well through dialogue and achieve common development by having friendly cooperation.”
But China also has close ties with Ethiopia – and analysts have said Beijing is unlikely to criticise it over the controversy.
The row began on January 1, when Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and Somaliland President Muse Bihi Abdi announced in Ethiopia’s capital Addis Ababa that they had signed a memorandum of understanding (MOU) granting naval and commercial access to ports along Somaliland’s coast, on lease to Ethiopia for 50 years. In return, the deal “includes provisions which state that the Ethiopian government will recognise Somaliland”.
Mogadishu called the deal an “illegal infringement of Ethiopia into our national sovereignty and territorial integrity”. Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud has since signed a law repealing the MOU.
In neighbouring Djibouti, China opened its first overseas military base in 2017, and has invested heavily in the country’s maritime industry.
Chinese companies have fishing interests in Somalia and Beijing has also been at the forefront of fighting piracy, with two frigates and a supply ship permanently stationed there on duty in Somali waters.
Guled Ahmed, a non-resident scholar at the Middle East Institute (MEI) who is from Mogadishu, said China was being cautious about the deal between Ethiopia and Somaliland and it was possible it would not respond to the matter at all.
“It has huge investments and stronger ties with Ethiopia than Somalia,” Ahmed said.
“The future of the Somaliland and Taiwan relationship is uncertain,” Ahmed said.
Ethiopia deal with breakaway region sparks row with Somalia
Ethiopia deal with breakaway region sparks row with Somalia
David Shinn, a professor at George Washington University’s Elliott School of International Affairs in Washington and former US ambassador to Addis Ababa, agreed Beijing was unlikely to censure its African ally.
“China has close ties with Ethiopia and will be reluctant to criticise Addis Ababa over this deal with Somaliland,” he said.
He also said it was important to watch what happened with the relationship between Taiwan and Somaliland.
“China opposed the exchange of offices between Taiwan and Somaliland and will become more critical if these ties take on greater political significance,” Shinn said.
In 2020, when Taiwan opened a representative office in Somaliland capital Hargeisa while Somaliland opened a similar office in Taipei, Beijing “condemned Taiwan for undermining Somalia’s sovereignty and territorial integrity”.
Beijing views Taiwan as part of China which must be reunited, by force if necessary. Most countries, including the United States, do not recognise Taiwan as an independent state, but Washington is opposed to any attempt to take the self-governed island by force and is committed to arm Taiwan.
According to Seifudein Adem, an Ethiopian global affairs professor at Doshisha University in Japan, China will seek to avoid overtly backing either side.
However, he said China would prefer it if Somaliland joined the community of nations, it was finally recognised as a legitimate state by the international community, and it cut off its diplomatic relations with Taiwan in due course.
“Otherwise, for the time being, China will seek to avoid the matter altogether,” Adem said.
“China has strengthened ties with Somalia recently, but the latter is so dysfunctional that it limits what Beijing can accomplish there,” Meservey said.
He added that China had already tried to induce Somaliland away from its ties with Taiwan, “though I think the Somalilanders understand that China will never recognise its independence because of the Taiwan issue”.
He said he believed that China would strongly support Mogadishu diplomatically in the current row.
“It’s not implausible that Beijing might also surreptitiously lend what support it can to any mischief that Mogadishu may try to stir in Somaliland in retaliation,” he said.
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Somaliland opens representative office in Taiwan, deepening recently established ties
Somaliland opens representative office in Taiwan, deepening recently established ties
While there is little likelihood of Beijing recognising Somaliland, in the US there has been a growing push by some in Congress and the Senate to do so in return for access to the port at Berbera as an alternative to America’s military base in Djibouti.
Shinn from George Washington University said there were several members of the US Congress, a few American think tanks and probably some officials in the Pentagon who supported the recognition of Somaliland.
“But the position of the Biden administration remains in support of the territorial integrity of Somalia,” Shinn said. “There is no indication that the Biden administration plans to change its policy.”
According to Ahmed from MEI, based on the US State Department’s daily briefings, it raised concerns about the Ethiopia-Somaliland deal and still recognised the sovereignty of Somalia and the territorial integrity based on the 1960 borders. Ahmed explained the wording was confusing as to whether the US was referring to borders post-merger or pre-merger because both happened in 1960. But, he said, the US was not against the deal and urged all stakeholders to engage in diplomatic dialogue to resolve the issue.
The deal with Somaliland comes shortly after Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy said in October that the landlocked country would assert its rights, a declaration that raised concern among its neighbours. According to Abiy, the country’s lack of access to the sea had “prevented Ethiopia from holding the place it ought to have” by affecting its ability to trade.
