China population: reluctance to marry, have kids continued in 2022 as demographic woes deepened

Willingness to get married and have children continued to fall in China last year, with a significant drop also seen in the interest to raise a second child, an official yearbook on population and employment statistics for 2022 showed.

Over 51 per cent of people aged between 25 and 29 in China remained single in 2022, up from 48.7 per cent for the previous year, the 2023 China Population and Employment Statistical Yearbook showed.

The unmarried rate for the thirty-something age group also rose mildly, according to data based on a sample survey conducted by the National Bureau of Statistics in November 2022.

Meanwhile, the annual fertility rate for women of childbearing age – the number of births for every 1,000 women aged between 15 and 49 – dropped from 31.27 in 2021 to 30.22 in 2022, the survey showed.

The fall in China’s fertility rate was largely caused by a plunge in the number of babies born as a second child, which slumped from 13.48 to 9.58 per 1,000 women, according to the yearbook.

Authorities have issued a series of incentives to encourage couples to have bigger families over the years after China introduced a three-child policy in May 2021 having officially ended its one-child policy in January 2016.

Reasons for the growing reluctance to get married and have children include the high cost of starting a family and pursuit of diversity and individuality.

It underscores the demographic pressure China is facing as its population shrinks and grows older, which threatens long-term economic development.

Independent demographer He Yafu has estimated that the number of newborns in 2023 could have fallen below 9 million, based on data issued by some local governments. The official data for 2023 is expected to be released in January.

“There’s no doubt that 2023 would mark the seventh consecutive year of decline in terms of the number of newborns, due to factors including fewer women at a childbearing age, a lower number of marriage registrations, and weak motivation for having kids,” he wrote on Tuesday.

China could end a nine-year streak of declining marriage registrations this year, with a swift rise in the number of newlyweds during the first three quarters likely to push the annual total above 7 million.

The total fertility rate – the average number of children that are born to a woman over her lifetime – could drop below one in 2023, compared with 1.05 in the previous year, He warned.

The phenomenon of gender discrimination at work, including the motherhood penalty, is getting worse

He Dan

A total fertility rate, or replacement rate, of 2.1 children per woman is generally seen to ensure a stable population.

He Dan, director of the China Population and Development Research Centre, said despite the government’s increasing investment in supporting childbirths, it still needs to weave a tighter supportive net to boost the birth rate.

Childcare services in China only cover 7 per cent of all young children, with the others cared for at home, she said in an article published in the December issue of the Population and Health journal.

“There’s also a mismatch between government directives and related laws,” she said.

“The phenomenon of gender discrimination at work, including the motherhood penalty, is getting worse.”

South China Morning Post