South China Sea: what next in the China-Philippines war of words over the Second Thomas Shoal?

The Philippines said the Chinese ships separated one of two boats carrying food and other supplies from its coastguard vessel escort in a “dangerous manoeuvre” before firing a water cannon. The Chinese vessels also fired water at the Philippine coastguard ships, photos and footage of the encounter from the Philippines show.

02:13

Philippines accuses Chinese coastguard of firing water cannons at its vessels in disputed waters

Philippines accuses Chinese coastguard of firing water cannons at its vessels in disputed waters

The Philippine boats were resupplying a platoon stationed on the shoal in the BRP Sierra Madre, a rusting naval hulk acquired from the United States after the vessel had been deployed in the Vietnam war.

In 1999, the Philippines grounded the Sierra Madre on the atoll on purpose after China began construction on Mischief Reef, another disputed territory around 30km (19 miles) northwest of the Second Thomas Shoal. Manila now sees the ship as a permanent station and a demonstration of its sovereign rights over the atoll.

After the weekend encounter, several Western countries came out in support of the Philippines, including the United States, which repeated its position that an armed attack on a public Philippine ship would invoke mutual defence commitments under its 1951 treaty with the Philippines.

The Philippines said it was too early to say if the confrontation warranted action under the treaty.

China does not recognise the ruling. It says the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague had no right to decide the case because the crux of the Philippines’ sovereignty claims was outside its scope.

05:37

Marcos says US bases in Philippines not for ‘offensive action’ as Taiwan tensions simmer

Marcos says US bases in Philippines not for ‘offensive action’ as Taiwan tensions simmer

Baquisal, a former policy officer of the Philippine government, said China’s embassy in Manila had urged the Philippines to start negotiations on some maritime initiatives but there was still “considerable potential” for a military stand-off.

“The Philippine government is intent on treating the situation seriously and is not in a rush to downplay it – as is the case during the Duterte administration – so there has to be some substantial progress,” he said, referring to Marcos’ predecessor, Rodrigo Duterte.

While Marcos said the clash was not enough to invoke the mutual defence treaty with the US, the Philippines is still considering the conditions at which those commitments would be invoked, according to Baquisal. Most of China’s actions, such as close shadowing, using lasers and water cannons, fell below the more obvious cases of shooting at Filipino personnel.

“It’s not a decision either the US or the Philippines takes lightly,” he said.

Song Zhongping, a former People’s Liberation Army instructor, said China’s next actions would depend on the steps taken by the Philippines and the US.

“In the past two days, strong words and statements have come from China’s coastguard, foreign ministry and defence ministry,” he said.

“They wanted the Philippines to remove [the Sierra Madre] because they believe that the ship harmed China’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.”

He said the Chinese coastguard or even PLA could increase their patrols near the Second Thomas Shoal in a symbolic show of strength but China was likely to remain restrained.

“I don’t think either side want to make a big deal out of this,” said Zhou Bo, a retired PLA senior colonel and a senior fellow of the Centre for International Security and Strategy at Tsinghua University.

“Whether it’s the Chinese spokesperson or the statement of the embassy in the Philippines, I think there’s still a certain amount of room for leeway. The emphasis is still on the need for dialogue and that bilateral matters can be resolved through bilateral discussions.”

South China Morning Post