Why China still refuses to resume military dialogue with US, despite Antony Blinken’s latest appeal

“If we agree that it’s in our mutual interests to make sure that the competitive aspects of the relationship don’t veer into conflict, then surely we can agree and see the need for making sure that the channels of communication that we’ve both said are necessary to do that include military-to-military channels,” he added.

Blinken’s remarks indicated that Washington wanted to “secure the absolute prevention and avoidance of military conflict” but still continue to challenge China’s “core interests”, said Shi Yinhong, an international relations professor at Beijing’s Renmin University.

“China has resisted giving such absolute assurances because it fears that it would amount to letting the US keep boosting its support for Taiwan,” said Shi, referring to Washington’s increased arms sales and enhanced economic and diplomatic ties with the island.

“The PLA also sees the prevention of conflict as a top task, but it relies more on the experience of frontline troops on both sides.”

Shi said that if the present state of US discourse continued, “China would probably never agree to resume military-to-military communications between the two countries.”

Beijing has warned the US and other countries not to provide military aid or have exchanges with Taiwan.

The US, like most countries, does not recognise Taiwan as an independent state but is opposed to any forcible change in the status quo and is legally bound to help it defend itself.

Blinken’s visit was originally scheduled to take place earlier in the year but he postponed the trip after the US shot down an alleged Chinese spy balloon that crossed into American territory in February.

In an interview with NBC News on Monday before leaving Beijing, Blinken said his trip had been an “important start” in stabilising US ties with China. He added that they should move on from the spy balloon saga, adding: “That chapter should be closed.”

During the visit he met top Chinese diplomats Wang Yi and Qin Gang, as well as President Xi Jinping.

Zhou Chenning, a researcher from the Yuan Wang military science and technology think tank in Beijing, said that the PLA would only move forward with inter-military communications unless Washington shows “sincerity with respect” towards Beijing.

“Blinken’s China trip has effectively helped both sides stop the soured bilateral ties from getting worse, but it is still too early for the relationship between the two militaries to return to their previous stable state,” Zhou said.

“Beijing has the patience to wait and repeatedly stated its requirements [of the resumption] as the PLA representatives made clear at the recently ended Shangri-La Defence Forum in Singapore.”

Chinese defence minister Li Shangfu refused to meet his US counterpart Lloyd Austin, except a brief courtesy handshake at a welcome dinner on the opening day of the event, Asia’s premier annual security forum.