That is not the case at the moment, however. China has no interest in intervening directly to pacify Sudan, at least until the dispute between armed units loyal to Sudan’s de facto ruler General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan and paramilitary Rapid Support Forces leader General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo is confined to Sudanese territory.
Saudi Arabia and Iran’s strategic and economic importance weighed on China’s decision to mediate between them. Beijing has long-standing economic interests in Sudan, but bilateral trade and Chinese loans have steadily declined since the country’s partition in 2011 with the creation of South Sudan.
China would prefer to let the African Union try to solve the Sudanese conundrum, like it did last year with efforts that led to the signing of a peace deal to bring an end to the civil war in Ethiopia. However, the pan-African bloc and regional actors such as the Intergovernmental Authority on Development have so far been unable to launch any concrete diplomatic action.
Instead, Saudi Arabia and the US have stepped into the fray and taken the initiative in negotiations. Their officials have met both sides and mediated in Jeddah to secure a seven-day truce between the warring factions that expires on Sunday.
China’s wait-and-see approach shields it from the cost of remaining entangled in an intractable emergency like that under way in Sudan. Despite Beijing’s recent diplomatic activism, the Chinese approach is still “hide your strength, bide your time”, late paramount leader Deng Xiaoping’s guiding foreign policy orientation. But, in doing so, Beijing risks ceding space to Washington in the region.
China has outcompeted the US and Europe as far as strategic penetration in Africa is concerned, especially through the Belt and Road Initiative, President Xi Jinping’s plan to boost connectivity throughout Eurasia and beyond. However, in the past few years, the European Union and the administration of US President Joe Biden have launched economic and financial schemes to regain lost positions in the continent.