Why nations seeking to hedge between US and China should look to Vietnam, not the Philippines

Singapore and Malaysia are members of the Five Power Defence Arrangements alongside Australia, New Zealand and Britain. Malaysia also hosts Australian units at its Butterworth airbase, but is nevertheless still trying to hedge between superpowers. Indonesia has been able to maintain neutrality between the US and China, rejecting a 2020 US request to allow its surveillance planes to land and refuel there.

Meanwhile, the models for the best and worst approaches to hedging are Vietnam and the Philippines respectively.

Anti-China hawks among the Philippine elite appear to have convinced President Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jnr’s administration to abandon his predecessor Rodrigo Duterte’s policy of moving towards China.

In addition to the five bases the US military has access to, under the EDCA, it has added four more. Several of the nine have ready access to the South China Sea and two of the additions are in northern Luzon. China has said it is concerned they could be used for intelligence collection.

In an apparent attempt to head off Chinese anger, the Philippines has qualified the arrangement. Foreign Affairs Secretary Enrique Manalo told a Senate hearing that the US would not be allowed to stockpile weapons at sites in the Philippines for use in operations in Taiwan. Meanwhile, Marcos said the US could not use its access to Philippine bases for “offensive actions” against any country.