Introduction: Oil and stocks hit by China protests
Good morning and welcome to our rolling coverage of business, the financial markets and the world economy.
Global stock markets are on edge as the protests intensify at major Chinese cities against the country’s stringent zero-Covid rules.
Stocks have fallen across Asia-Pacific markets, while oil has dropped to a near 11-month low, as public demonstrations in cities including Shanghai, Beijing, Chengdu, Wuhan and Guangzhou pose a growing challenge to president Xi’s zero covid policies.
China’s CSI 300 share index fell sharply in early trading, before closing down over 1%. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng is down 1.3% in late trading.
China Markets Slide as Covid Protests Put Investors on Edge
– Goldman sees chance of early, disorderly Covid Zero exit
– Stocks, yuan drop amid worries over social unrest, crackdownhttps://t.co/j8ahzvm2je pic.twitter.com/zj8uiiK55v— Tom Mackenzie (@TomMackenzieTV) November 28, 2022
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European markets are set to open lower.
Goedemorgen, mn morning call is onderweg. #AEX indicatie is -0,5% en alles staat lager op onrust in China. Dit is om te beginnen Chinese #CSI300 van vrijdag op vandaag pic.twitter.com/HSHzES5GHd
— Arend Jan Kamp (@ArendJanKamp) November 28, 2022
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On Sunday, hundreds of demonstrators and police have clashed in Shanghai, as frustration mounts nearly three years into the pandemic.
The record rise in Covid-19 cases has added to public anger, explains Victoria Scholar, Head of Investment, at interactive investor:
“Rare protests have broken out across major Chinese cities in a backlash against the ongoing draconian zero-tolerance to Covid approach from the authorities that has inhibited the freedoms of Chinese citizens since the start of 2020 and that has sharply damaged China’s economic growth.
As a result, international investors have become a lot more cautious towards China with the unrest weighing on the Shanghai Composite, the Hang Seng Index and the Chinese yuan in today’s trade.
In mid-November China reduced its quarantine time for international travel by two days, suggesting that Beijing was finally starting to ease its strict lockdown measures and helping to lift travel and casino stocks amid optimism towards the potential economic reopening.
However that optimism has faded fast with China recording another record high level of covid infections on Monday, adding to the sense of frustration after this weekend’s protests.
ASIAN MARKETS BRACE FOR IMPACT AS CHINA UNREST HITS SENTIMENT; ANYTHING EXPOSED TO CHINA IS 'GOING TO BE VULNERABLE': SAXO
— FXHedge (@Fxhedgers) November 28, 2022
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ASIAN MARKETS BRACE FOR IMPACT AS CHINA UNREST HITS SENTIMENT; ANYTHING EXPOSED TO CHINA IS ‘GOING TO BE VULNERABLE’: SAXO
— FXHedge (@Fxhedgers) November 28, 2022
With optimism about China’s recovery taking a knock, investors are selling out of stocks and oil in favour of safe havens such as dollar, yen and Treasuries.
Stephen Innes, managing partner at SPI Asset Management, explains:
It certainly doesn’t help when many are confined to their apartments watching the World Cup, saw thousands of mask-less fans in Qatar enjoying life that has long been lost in COVID zero haze.
Social discontent could increase in China over the coming months testing policymakers’ resolve to stick to the COVID zero mandates. And since China’s economy is currently in a tug-of-war between weakening macroeconomic fundamentals and increasing reopening hopes.
Mass protests would deeply tilt the scales in favour of an even weaker economy and likely be accompanied by a massive surge in Covid cases, leaving policymakers with a considerable dilemma.
— Tom Hearden (@followtheh) November 28, 2022
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Chinese stocks plunge Monday at the open pic.twitter.com/Mv9Yy8VWJs
— David Ingles (@DavidInglesTV) November 28, 2022
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The agenda
11am GMT: CBI survey of UK distributive trades (retail industry)
2pm GMT: ECB president Christine Lagarde testifies to the European Parliament’s Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs
3.30pm GMT: Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index
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Bloomberg are reporting that the turmoil at Apple’s key manufacturing hub of Zhengzhou could create a production shortfall of close to 6 million iPhone Pro units this year
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They say:
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\n
The situation remains fluid at the plant and the estimate of lost production could change, the person said, asking not to be named discussing private information.
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Much will depend on how quickly Foxconn Technology Group, the Taiwanese company that operates the facility, can get people back to assembly lines after violent protests against Covid restrictions. If lockdowns continue in the weeks ahead, production could be set further back.
\n
The Zhengzhou campus has been wracked by lockdowns and worker unrest for weeks after Covid infections left Foxconn and the local government struggling to contain the outbreak. Thousands of staff fled in October after chronic food shortages, only to be replaced by new employees who rebelled against pay and quarantine practices.
\n
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Apple down all sessions on the IG platform as China disruption continues #AAPL pic.twitter.com/uOauVQlt4y
— IG (@IGcom) November 28, 2022
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Videos fro Zhengzhou have shown police in China beating workers who protesting over working conditions and pay at the iPhone factory. More here:
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Shares in Apple are down around 1.4% in premarket.
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Apple down all sessions on the IG platform as China disruption continues #AAPL pic.twitter.com/uOauVQlt4y
— IG (@IGcom) November 28, 2022
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The “unprecedented waves of protest in China” have caused ripples of unease across financial markets, explains Susannah Streeter, senior investment and markets analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown.
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Worries are mounting about the repercussions for the world’s second-largest economy, she explains:
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As demonstrations spread across the country from Beijing to Xinjiang and Shanghai, reflecting rising anger about the zero-Covid policy, a sustained recovery in demand across the vast country appears even further away.
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This has piled fresh downwards pressure on the oil price, with Brent Crude dropping to $81 a barrel, the lowest level since early January.
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Already pockets of violence have erupted as police forces push back at protestors, but there are expectations that a much more stringent security clampdown will be ordered.
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This is all dashing hopes of an easing of restrictions, given that Xi JinPing will not want to look like he’s backing down in the face of protests.
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China’s yuan has fallen to the lowest in over two weeks against the US dollar.
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The onshore yuan has closed at 7.1999 to the dollar, the lowest in over two weeks.
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That shows investors are worried how Beijing would react to the wave of protests, at a time when Covid-19 cases are rising at record speed.
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Chris Weston, head of research at brokerage Pepperstone, explained:
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We’re really looking at the government response to what’s happening … the government response is so unpredictable, and of course that just means derisking.
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The onshore yuan closed officially at 7.1999 against the dollar at 16:30 GMT, down 384 points from the previous session's official close and 364 points from the previous day's overnight close#forex #forextrader #forexsignal pic.twitter.com/ttcRvEllGt
— FxGecko (@FxGecko_Global) November 28, 2022
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Britain’s blue-chip share index has fallen half a percent at the start of trading.
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The FTSE 100 index has shed 39 points to 7447 points, falling back from last week’s two-month highs.
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Oil giants BP (-2%) and Shell (-1.8) are among the top fallers, along with Asia-Pacific focused financial firms HSBC (-1.3%) and Standard Chartered (-1.6%).
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Mining giants are also in the red, tracking the drop in iron ore and copper prices.
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Other commodity prices are also sinking this morning, amid fears over China’s worsening virus situation and the series of protests in several cities.
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Iron ore futures in Singapore slumped more than 3% at one stage today, while Chinese copper futures declined as much as 1.8%.
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Traders are concerned that China’s economic growth could be derailed, as infections rise at a record pace and more lockdowns are imposed. That would sap demand for energy, food and raw materials.
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As Bloomberg points out:
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A return to stricter lockdowns would further squeeze demand for a number of key commodities.
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China is the largest importer of everything from oil to iron ore and soybeans, and purchases have already slowed this year as the economy has stumbled.
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Commodities sink as China’s Covid outbreak worsens and the protests threaten to derail economic activity https://t.co/0JKxyyzOsb pic.twitter.com/6bUtHdtQMa
— Bloomberg (@business) November 28, 2022
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Brent crude, the oil benchmark, has fallen almost 3% to its lowest level since January. as China’s Covid protests fuel demand fears.
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Brent is trading at $81.48 per barrel, while US crude is below $75/barrel for the first time in around 11 months.
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Politcl uncertainty and the surge in Covid-19 cases in China are both weighing on the oil price, which is a bellwether of growth prospects.
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Naeem Alsam, chief market analyst at Avatrade, says:
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\n
Basically, it is demand that is creating the main issue for the price, and the fact that we have a potential recession threat and now the covid issues in China, things are becoming difficult for oil traders
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The reality is that no one wants to see more lockdowns in China, as a situation like this creates nothing but more headwinds for oil prices.
\n
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The wave of civil disobedience –- triggered by a deadly apartment fire in the far west of the country last week –- is unprecedented in mainland China in the past decade.
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My colleagues Helen Davidson and Verna Yu report:
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\n
In the early hours of Monday in Beijing, two groups of protesters totalling at least 1,000 people were gathered along the Chinese capital’s 3rd Ring Road near the Liangma River, refusing to disperse.
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On Sunday in Shanghai, police kept a heavy presence on Wulumuqi Road, which is named after Urumqi, and where a candlelight vigil the day before turned into protests.
\n
“We just want our basic human rights. We can’t leave our homes without getting a test. It was the accident in Xinjiang that pushed people too far,” said a 26-year-old protester in Shanghai who declined to be identified.
\n
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Good morning and welcome to our rolling coverage of business, the financial markets and the world economy.
","elementId":"40c2d250-c0ae-4e94-8751-2bf5e91e9252"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement","html":"
Global stock markets are on edge as the protests intensify at major Chinese cities against the country’s stringent zero-Covid rules.
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Stocks have fallen across Asia-Pacific markets, while oil has dropped to a near 11-month low, as public demonstrations in cities including Shanghai, Beijing, Chengdu, Wuhan and Guangzhou pose a growing challenge to president Xi’s zero covid policies.
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China’s CSI 300 share index fell sharply in early trading, before closing down over 1%. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng is down 1.3% in late trading.
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China Markets Slide as Covid Protests Put Investors on Edge
– Goldman sees chance of early, disorderly Covid Zero exit
– Stocks, yuan drop amid worries over social unrest, crackdownhttps://t.co/j8ahzvm2je pic.twitter.com/zj8uiiK55v— Tom Mackenzie (@TomMackenzieTV) November 28, 2022
\n","url":"https://twitter.com/tommackenzietv/status/1597107783274565635?s=46&t=WtH_JHUkn1yMqJINGCHcqw","id":"1597107783274565635","hasMedia":false,"role":"inline","isThirdPartyTracking":false,"source":"Twitter","elementId":"b65f89c4-849e-4556-800a-6e163229efa4"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement","html":"
European markets are set to open lower.
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Goedemorgen, mn morning call is onderweg. #AEX indicatie is -0,5% en alles staat lager op onrust in China. Dit is om te beginnen Chinese #CSI300 van vrijdag op vandaag pic.twitter.com/HSHzES5GHd
— Arend Jan Kamp (@ArendJanKamp) November 28, 2022
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On Sunday, hundreds of demonstrators and police have clashed in Shanghai, as frustration mounts nearly three years into the pandemic.
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The record rise in Covid-19 cases has added to public anger, explains Victoria Scholar, Head of Investment, at interactive investor:
","elementId":"377568ad-ac02-4682-be5d-3686f06e0368"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.BlockquoteBlockElement","html":"
\n
“Rare protests have broken out across major Chinese cities in a backlash against the ongoing draconian zero-tolerance to Covid approach from the authorities that has inhibited the freedoms of Chinese citizens since the start of 2020 and that has sharply damaged China’s economic growth.
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As a result, international investors have become a lot more cautious towards China with the unrest weighing on the Shanghai Composite, the Hang Seng Index and the Chinese yuan in today’s trade.
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In mid-November China reduced its quarantine time for international travel by two days, suggesting that Beijing was finally starting to ease its strict lockdown measures and helping to lift travel and casino stocks amid optimism towards the potential economic reopening.
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However that optimism has faded fast with China recording another record high level of covid infections on Monday, adding to the sense of frustration after this weekend’s protests.
\n
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ASIAN MARKETS BRACE FOR IMPACT AS CHINA UNREST HITS SENTIMENT; ANYTHING EXPOSED TO CHINA IS 'GOING TO BE VULNERABLE': SAXO
— FXHedge (@Fxhedgers) November 28, 2022
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With optimism about China’s recovery taking a knock, investors are selling out of stocks and oil in favour of safe havens such as dollar, yen and Treasuries.
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Stephen Innes, managing partner at SPI Asset Management, explains:
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\n
It certainly doesn’t help when many are confined to their apartments watching the World Cup, saw thousands of mask-less fans in Qatar enjoying life that has long been lost in COVID zero haze.
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Social discontent could increase in China over the coming months testing policymakers’ resolve to stick to the COVID zero mandates. And since China’s economy is currently in a tug-of-war between weakening macroeconomic fundamentals and increasing reopening hopes.
\n
Mass protests would deeply tilt the scales in favour of an even weaker economy and likely be accompanied by a massive surge in Covid cases, leaving policymakers with a considerable dilemma.
\n
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— Tom Hearden (@followtheh) November 28, 2022
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Chinese stocks plunge Monday at the open pic.twitter.com/Mv9Yy8VWJs
— David Ingles (@DavidInglesTV) November 28, 2022
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The agenda
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11am GMT: CBI survey of UK distributive trades (retail industry)
2pm GMT: ECB president Christine Lagarde testifies to the European Parliament’s Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs
3.30pm GMT: Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index
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Key events
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Bloomberg are reporting that the turmoil at Apple’s key manufacturing hub of Zhengzhou could create a production shortfall of close to 6 million iPhone Pro units this year
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They say:
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The situation remains fluid at the plant and the estimate of lost production could change, the person said, asking not to be named discussing private information.
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Much will depend on how quickly Foxconn Technology Group, the Taiwanese company that operates the facility, can get people back to assembly lines after violent protests against Covid restrictions. If lockdowns continue in the weeks ahead, production could be set further back.
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The Zhengzhou campus has been wracked by lockdowns and worker unrest for weeks after Covid infections left Foxconn and the local government struggling to contain the outbreak. Thousands of staff fled in October after chronic food shortages, only to be replaced by new employees who rebelled against pay and quarantine practices.
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Apple down all sessions on the IG platform as China disruption continues #AAPL pic.twitter.com/uOauVQlt4y
— IG (@IGcom) November 28, 2022
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Videos fro Zhengzhou have shown police in China beating workers who protesting over working conditions and pay at the iPhone factory. More here:
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Shares in Apple are down around 1.4% in premarket.
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Apple down all sessions on the IG platform as China disruption continues #AAPL pic.twitter.com/uOauVQlt4y
— IG (@IGcom) November 28, 2022
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The “unprecedented waves of protest in China” have caused ripples of unease across financial markets, explains Susannah Streeter, senior investment and markets analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown.
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Worries are mounting about the repercussions for the world’s second-largest economy, she explains:
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As demonstrations spread across the country from Beijing to Xinjiang and Shanghai, reflecting rising anger about the zero-Covid policy, a sustained recovery in demand across the vast country appears even further away.
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This has piled fresh downwards pressure on the oil price, with Brent Crude dropping to $81 a barrel, the lowest level since early January.
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Already pockets of violence have erupted as police forces push back at protestors, but there are expectations that a much more stringent security clampdown will be ordered.
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This is all dashing hopes of an easing of restrictions, given that Xi JinPing will not want to look like he’s backing down in the face of protests.
\n
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China’s yuan has fallen to the lowest in over two weeks against the US dollar.
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The onshore yuan has closed at 7.1999 to the dollar, the lowest in over two weeks.
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That shows investors are worried how Beijing would react to the wave of protests, at a time when Covid-19 cases are rising at record speed.
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Chris Weston, head of research at brokerage Pepperstone, explained:
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We’re really looking at the government response to what’s happening … the government response is so unpredictable, and of course that just means derisking.
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The onshore yuan closed officially at 7.1999 against the dollar at 16:30 GMT, down 384 points from the previous session's official close and 364 points from the previous day's overnight close#forex #forextrader #forexsignal pic.twitter.com/ttcRvEllGt
— FxGecko (@FxGecko_Global) November 28, 2022
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Britain’s blue-chip share index has fallen half a percent at the start of trading.
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The FTSE 100 index has shed 39 points to 7447 points, falling back from last week’s two-month highs.
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Oil giants BP (-2%) and Shell (-1.8) are among the top fallers, along with Asia-Pacific focused financial firms HSBC (-1.3%) and Standard Chartered (-1.6%).
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Mining giants are also in the red, tracking the drop in iron ore and copper prices.
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Other commodity prices are also sinking this morning, amid fears over China’s worsening virus situation and the series of protests in several cities.
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Iron ore futures in Singapore slumped more than 3% at one stage today, while Chinese copper futures declined as much as 1.8%.
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Traders are concerned that China’s economic growth could be derailed, as infections rise at a record pace and more lockdowns are imposed. That would sap demand for energy, food and raw materials.
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As Bloomberg points out:
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A return to stricter lockdowns would further squeeze demand for a number of key commodities.
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China is the largest importer of everything from oil to iron ore and soybeans, and purchases have already slowed this year as the economy has stumbled.
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Commodities sink as China’s Covid outbreak worsens and the protests threaten to derail economic activity https://t.co/0JKxyyzOsb pic.twitter.com/6bUtHdtQMa
— Bloomberg (@business) November 28, 2022
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Brent crude, the oil benchmark, has fallen almost 3% to its lowest level since January. as China’s Covid protests fuel demand fears.
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Brent is trading at $81.48 per barrel, while US crude is below $75/barrel for the first time in around 11 months.
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Politcl uncertainty and the surge in Covid-19 cases in China are both weighing on the oil price, which is a bellwether of growth prospects.
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Naeem Alsam, chief market analyst at Avatrade, says:
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\n
Basically, it is demand that is creating the main issue for the price, and the fact that we have a potential recession threat and now the covid issues in China, things are becoming difficult for oil traders
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The reality is that no one wants to see more lockdowns in China, as a situation like this creates nothing but more headwinds for oil prices.
\n
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The wave of civil disobedience –- triggered by a deadly apartment fire in the far west of the country last week –- is unprecedented in mainland China in the past decade.
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My colleagues Helen Davidson and Verna Yu report:
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\n
In the early hours of Monday in Beijing, two groups of protesters totalling at least 1,000 people were gathered along the Chinese capital’s 3rd Ring Road near the Liangma River, refusing to disperse.
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On Sunday in Shanghai, police kept a heavy presence on Wulumuqi Road, which is named after Urumqi, and where a candlelight vigil the day before turned into protests.
\n
“We just want our basic human rights. We can’t leave our homes without getting a test. It was the accident in Xinjiang that pushed people too far,” said a 26-year-old protester in Shanghai who declined to be identified.
\n
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Good morning and welcome to our rolling coverage of business, the financial markets and the world economy.
","elementId":"40c2d250-c0ae-4e94-8751-2bf5e91e9252"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement","html":"
Global stock markets are on edge as the protests intensify at major Chinese cities against the country’s stringent zero-Covid rules.
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Stocks have fallen across Asia-Pacific markets, while oil has dropped to a near 11-month low, as public demonstrations in cities including Shanghai, Beijing, Chengdu, Wuhan and Guangzhou pose a growing challenge to president Xi’s zero covid policies.
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China’s CSI 300 share index fell sharply in early trading, before closing down over 1%. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng is down 1.3% in late trading.
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China Markets Slide as Covid Protests Put Investors on Edge
– Goldman sees chance of early, disorderly Covid Zero exit
– Stocks, yuan drop amid worries over social unrest, crackdownhttps://t.co/j8ahzvm2je pic.twitter.com/zj8uiiK55v— Tom Mackenzie (@TomMackenzieTV) November 28, 2022
\n","url":"https://twitter.com/tommackenzietv/status/1597107783274565635?s=46&t=WtH_JHUkn1yMqJINGCHcqw","id":"1597107783274565635","hasMedia":false,"role":"inline","isThirdPartyTracking":false,"source":"Twitter","elementId":"b65f89c4-849e-4556-800a-6e163229efa4"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement","html":"
European markets are set to open lower.
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Goedemorgen, mn morning call is onderweg. #AEX indicatie is -0,5% en alles staat lager op onrust in China. Dit is om te beginnen Chinese #CSI300 van vrijdag op vandaag pic.twitter.com/HSHzES5GHd
— Arend Jan Kamp (@ArendJanKamp) November 28, 2022
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On Sunday, hundreds of demonstrators and police have clashed in Shanghai, as frustration mounts nearly three years into the pandemic.
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The record rise in Covid-19 cases has added to public anger, explains Victoria Scholar, Head of Investment, at interactive investor:
","elementId":"377568ad-ac02-4682-be5d-3686f06e0368"},{"_type":"model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.BlockquoteBlockElement","html":"
\n
“Rare protests have broken out across major Chinese cities in a backlash against the ongoing draconian zero-tolerance to Covid approach from the authorities that has inhibited the freedoms of Chinese citizens since the start of 2020 and that has sharply damaged China’s economic growth.
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As a result, international investors have become a lot more cautious towards China with the unrest weighing on the Shanghai Composite, the Hang Seng Index and the Chinese yuan in today’s trade.
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In mid-November China reduced its quarantine time for international travel by two days, suggesting that Beijing was finally starting to ease its strict lockdown measures and helping to lift travel and casino stocks amid optimism towards the potential economic reopening.
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However that optimism has faded fast with China recording another record high level of covid infections on Monday, adding to the sense of frustration after this weekend’s protests.
\n
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ASIAN MARKETS BRACE FOR IMPACT AS CHINA UNREST HITS SENTIMENT; ANYTHING EXPOSED TO CHINA IS 'GOING TO BE VULNERABLE': SAXO
— FXHedge (@Fxhedgers) November 28, 2022
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With optimism about China’s recovery taking a knock, investors are selling out of stocks and oil in favour of safe havens such as dollar, yen and Treasuries.
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Stephen Innes, managing partner at SPI Asset Management, explains:
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\n
It certainly doesn’t help when many are confined to their apartments watching the World Cup, saw thousands of mask-less fans in Qatar enjoying life that has long been lost in COVID zero haze.
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Social discontent could increase in China over the coming months testing policymakers’ resolve to stick to the COVID zero mandates. And since China’s economy is currently in a tug-of-war between weakening macroeconomic fundamentals and increasing reopening hopes.
\n
Mass protests would deeply tilt the scales in favour of an even weaker economy and likely be accompanied by a massive surge in Covid cases, leaving policymakers with a considerable dilemma.
\n
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— Tom Hearden (@followtheh) November 28, 2022
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Chinese stocks plunge Monday at the open pic.twitter.com/Mv9Yy8VWJs
— David Ingles (@DavidInglesTV) November 28, 2022
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The agenda
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11am GMT: CBI survey of UK distributive trades (retail industry)
2pm GMT: ECB president Christine Lagarde testifies to the European Parliament’s Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs
3.30pm GMT: Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index
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Filters BETA
The cost of insuring China’s debt against default has risen a little today.
China five-year credit default swaps have risen by 6 basis points to 79bps, according to S&P Global Markets intelligence. That’s still low (showing the debt is seen as safe), but it shows rising edginess in the markets.
Europe’s oil and gas share index is down almost 2%, on worries that demand from China could weaken.
AJ Bell investment director Russ Mould explains:
“China is a rapacious consumer of global commodities and signs economic activity is being disrupted by the mounting dissent in the country will be seen as negative for demand. It’s worth noting that unrest is already affecting business in China including Apple which has seen violent clashes at one of its facilities in Zhengzhou.
“In the medium term the protests could be positive for growth if they persuade Beijing to adopt a looser approach to Covid but given how strident Xi Jinping has been in pursuing the hard-line policy, it’s difficult to see it being surrendered easily.
“Part of the problem for China is vaccination levels are behind those seen in other parts of the world and this means a ‘living with the virus’ strategy comes with substantial risks attached.”
Apple “to lose 6 million iPhone Pros” from China tumult
Photograph: AP
Bloomberg are reporting that the turmoil at Apple’s key manufacturing hub of Zhengzhou could create a production shortfall of close to 6 million iPhone Pro units this year
They say:
The situation remains fluid at the plant and the estimate of lost production could change, the person said, asking not to be named discussing private information.
Much will depend on how quickly Foxconn Technology Group, the Taiwanese company that operates the facility, can get people back to assembly lines after violent protests against Covid restrictions. If lockdowns continue in the weeks ahead, production could be set further back.
The Zhengzhou campus has been wracked by lockdowns and worker unrest for weeks after Covid infections left Foxconn and the local government struggling to contain the outbreak. Thousands of staff fled in October after chronic food shortages, only to be replaced by new employees who rebelled against pay and quarantine practices.
Apple down all sessions on the IG platform as China disruption continues #AAPL pic.twitter.com/uOauVQlt4y
— IG (@IGcom) November 28, 2022
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Videos fro Zhengzhou have shown police in China beating workers who protesting over working conditions and pay at the iPhone factory. More here:
Shares in Apple are down around 1.4% in premarket.
Apple down all sessions on the IG platform as China disruption continues #AAPL pic.twitter.com/uOauVQlt4y
— IG (@IGcom) November 28, 2022
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Martin Petch, vice president at Moody’s Investors Service, has said the ratings agency expected the protests in China “to dissipate relatively quickly and without resulting in serious political violence”.
But he cautioned:
“However, they have the potential to be credit negative if they are sustained and produce a more forceful response by the authorities.”
Market Report: Chinese protests send waves of unease across financial markets
The “unprecedented waves of protest in China” have caused ripples of unease across financial markets, explains Susannah Streeter, senior investment and markets analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown.
Worries are mounting about the repercussions for the world’s second-largest economy, she explains:
As demonstrations spread across the country from Beijing to Xinjiang and Shanghai, reflecting rising anger about the zero-Covid policy, a sustained recovery in demand across the vast country appears even further away.
This has piled fresh downwards pressure on the oil price, with Brent Crude dropping to $81 a barrel, the lowest level since early January.
Already pockets of violence have erupted as police forces push back at protestors, but there are expectations that a much more stringent security clampdown will be ordered.
This is all dashing hopes of an easing of restrictions, given that Xi JinPing will not want to look like he’s backing down in the face of protests.
Yuan falls to two-week low
China’s yuan has fallen to the lowest in over two weeks against the US dollar.
The onshore yuan has closed at 7.1999 to the dollar, the lowest in over two weeks.
That shows investors are worried how Beijing would react to the wave of protests, at a time when Covid-19 cases are rising at record speed.
Chris Weston, head of research at brokerage Pepperstone, explained:
We’re really looking at the government response to what’s happening … the government response is so unpredictable, and of course that just means derisking.
The onshore yuan closed officially at 7.1999 against the dollar at 16:30 GMT, down 384 points from the previous session's official close and 364 points from the previous day's overnight close#forex #forextrader #forexsignal pic.twitter.com/ttcRvEllGt
— FxGecko (@FxGecko_Global) November 28, 2022
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The drop in the oil price gives G7 nations an opportunity to tighten the financial pressure on Vladimir Putin.
So argues Robin Brooks, chief economist at the Institute of International Finance:
Oil prices are tumbling. The G7 should ignore lobbying from Greece, Malta & Cyprus for a high and ineffectual cap of $60-70. Now is the time to hit Putin where it hurts, as weak demand means Russian production cuts won't do much. A cap of $30 sends Russia into financial crisis… pic.twitter.com/zG1JUk57BE
— Robin Brooks (@RobinBrooksIIF) November 28, 2022
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Oil prices are tumbling. The G7 should ignore lobbying from Greece, Malta & Cyprus for a high and ineffectual cap of $60-70. Now is the time to hit Putin where it hurts, as weak demand means Russian production cuts won’t do much. A cap of $30 sends Russia into financial crisis… pic.twitter.com/zG1JUk57BE
— Robin Brooks (@RobinBrooksIIF) November 28, 2022
European stock markets have also opened lower:
#EnDirecto | Apertura bolsas europeas:
🇩🇪 DAX 🔻 -0,49%
🇪🇺 EuroStoxx 🔻 -0,45%
🇬🇧 FTSE 🔻 -0,81%
🇫🇷 CAC 🔻 -0,50%
🇮🇹 FTSE MIB 🔻 -0,69%https://t.co/S6BlqkhebB
— Radio Intereconomía (@rintereconomia) November 28, 2022
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#EnDirecto | Apertura bolsas europeas:
🇩🇪 DAX 🔻 -0,49%
🇪🇺 EuroStoxx 🔻 -0,45%
🇬🇧 FTSE 🔻 -0,81%
🇫🇷 CAC 🔻 -0,50%
🇮🇹 FTSE MIB 🔻 -0,69%https://t.co/S6BlqkhebB
— Radio Intereconomía (@rintereconomia) November 28, 2022
FTSE 100 index drops at the open
Britain’s blue-chip share index has fallen half a percent at the start of trading.
The FTSE 100 index has shed 39 points to 7447 points, falling back from last week’s two-month highs.
Oil giants BP (-2%) and Shell (-1.8) are among the top fallers, along with Asia-Pacific focused financial firms HSBC (-1.3%) and Standard Chartered (-1.6%).
Mining giants are also in the red, tracking the drop in iron ore and copper prices.
The economic and market headwinds hitting China are unlikely to abate significantly over the coming months, warns Mark Haefele, chief investment officer at UBS Global Wealth Management.
He predicts Beijing policymakers will focus on stabilizing the economy, rather than spurring growth, adding:
Rising COVID-19 infections remain a significant drag on growth.
Support for the property sector looks sufficient to limit the damage but may not spur faster growth.
A widening of infections could add to supply chain interruptions, with China’s problems spilling into global markets.
Commodities sink as China’s Covid outbreak worsens
Other commodity prices are also sinking this morning, amid fears over China’s worsening virus situation and the series of protests in several cities.
Iron ore futures in Singapore slumped more than 3% at one stage today, while Chinese copper futures declined as much as 1.8%.
Traders are concerned that China’s economic growth could be derailed, as infections rise at a record pace and more lockdowns are imposed. That would sap demand for energy, food and raw materials.
As Bloomberg points out:
A return to stricter lockdowns would further squeeze demand for a number of key commodities.
China is the largest importer of everything from oil to iron ore and soybeans, and purchases have already slowed this year as the economy has stumbled.
Commodities sink as China’s Covid outbreak worsens and the protests threaten to derail economic activity https://t.co/0JKxyyzOsb pic.twitter.com/6bUtHdtQMa
— Bloomberg (@business) November 28, 2022
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Brent crude oil hits lowest since January
Brent crude, the oil benchmark, has fallen almost 3% to its lowest level since January. as China’s Covid protests fuel demand fears.
Brent is trading at $81.48 per barrel, while US crude is below $75/barrel for the first time in around 11 months.
Politcl uncertainty and the surge in Covid-19 cases in China are both weighing on the oil price, which is a bellwether of growth prospects.
Naeem Alsam, chief market analyst at Avatrade, says:
Basically, it is demand that is creating the main issue for the price, and the fact that we have a potential recession threat and now the covid issues in China, things are becoming difficult for oil traders
The reality is that no one wants to see more lockdowns in China, as a situation like this creates nothing but more headwinds for oil prices.
Full story: Clashes in Shanghai as protests over zero-Covid policy grip China
The wave of civil disobedience –- triggered by a deadly apartment fire in the far west of the country last week –- is unprecedented in mainland China in the past decade.
My colleagues Helen Davidson and Verna Yu report:
In the early hours of Monday in Beijing, two groups of protesters totalling at least 1,000 people were gathered along the Chinese capital’s 3rd Ring Road near the Liangma River, refusing to disperse.
On Sunday in Shanghai, police kept a heavy presence on Wulumuqi Road, which is named after Urumqi, and where a candlelight vigil the day before turned into protests.
“We just want our basic human rights. We can’t leave our homes without getting a test. It was the accident in Xinjiang that pushed people too far,” said a 26-year-old protester in Shanghai who declined to be identified.
Introduction: Oil and stocks hit by China protests
Good morning and welcome to our rolling coverage of business, the financial markets and the world economy.
Global stock markets are on edge as the protests intensify at major Chinese cities against the country’s stringent zero-Covid rules.
Stocks have fallen across Asia-Pacific markets, while oil has dropped to a near 11-month low, as public demonstrations in cities including Shanghai, Beijing, Chengdu, Wuhan and Guangzhou pose a growing challenge to president Xi’s zero covid policies.
China’s CSI 300 share index fell sharply in early trading, before closing down over 1%. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng is down 1.3% in late trading.
China Markets Slide as Covid Protests Put Investors on Edge
– Goldman sees chance of early, disorderly Covid Zero exit
– Stocks, yuan drop amid worries over social unrest, crackdownhttps://t.co/j8ahzvm2je pic.twitter.com/zj8uiiK55v— Tom Mackenzie (@TomMackenzieTV) November 28, 2022
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European markets are set to open lower.
Goedemorgen, mn morning call is onderweg. #AEX indicatie is -0,5% en alles staat lager op onrust in China. Dit is om te beginnen Chinese #CSI300 van vrijdag op vandaag pic.twitter.com/HSHzES5GHd
— Arend Jan Kamp (@ArendJanKamp) November 28, 2022
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On Sunday, hundreds of demonstrators and police have clashed in Shanghai, as frustration mounts nearly three years into the pandemic.
The record rise in Covid-19 cases has added to public anger, explains Victoria Scholar, Head of Investment, at interactive investor:
“Rare protests have broken out across major Chinese cities in a backlash against the ongoing draconian zero-tolerance to Covid approach from the authorities that has inhibited the freedoms of Chinese citizens since the start of 2020 and that has sharply damaged China’s economic growth.
As a result, international investors have become a lot more cautious towards China with the unrest weighing on the Shanghai Composite, the Hang Seng Index and the Chinese yuan in today’s trade.
In mid-November China reduced its quarantine time for international travel by two days, suggesting that Beijing was finally starting to ease its strict lockdown measures and helping to lift travel and casino stocks amid optimism towards the potential economic reopening.
However that optimism has faded fast with China recording another record high level of covid infections on Monday, adding to the sense of frustration after this weekend’s protests.
ASIAN MARKETS BRACE FOR IMPACT AS CHINA UNREST HITS SENTIMENT; ANYTHING EXPOSED TO CHINA IS 'GOING TO BE VULNERABLE': SAXO
— FXHedge (@Fxhedgers) November 28, 2022
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ASIAN MARKETS BRACE FOR IMPACT AS CHINA UNREST HITS SENTIMENT; ANYTHING EXPOSED TO CHINA IS ‘GOING TO BE VULNERABLE’: SAXO
— FXHedge (@Fxhedgers) November 28, 2022
With optimism about China’s recovery taking a knock, investors are selling out of stocks and oil in favour of safe havens such as dollar, yen and Treasuries.
Stephen Innes, managing partner at SPI Asset Management, explains:
It certainly doesn’t help when many are confined to their apartments watching the World Cup, saw thousands of mask-less fans in Qatar enjoying life that has long been lost in COVID zero haze.
Social discontent could increase in China over the coming months testing policymakers’ resolve to stick to the COVID zero mandates. And since China’s economy is currently in a tug-of-war between weakening macroeconomic fundamentals and increasing reopening hopes.
Mass protests would deeply tilt the scales in favour of an even weaker economy and likely be accompanied by a massive surge in Covid cases, leaving policymakers with a considerable dilemma.
— Tom Hearden (@followtheh) November 28, 2022
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Chinese stocks plunge Monday at the open pic.twitter.com/Mv9Yy8VWJs
— David Ingles (@DavidInglesTV) November 28, 2022
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The agenda
11am GMT: CBI survey of UK distributive trades (retail industry)
2pm GMT: ECB president Christine Lagarde testifies to the European Parliament’s Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs
3.30pm GMT: Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index
