They will select mayors and county magistrates in nearly all 22 cities and counties in Taiwan on Saturday. However, the election in Chiayi in the southwest will be postponed until December 18 because of the death of a mayoral candidate.
Voters will also elect city and county councillors, borough and neighbourhood chiefs and other local officials.
An estimated 19.3 million electors are eligible to cast ballots, and preliminary results should be available by Saturday evening.
In addition to the DPP and the main opposition Kuomintang (KMT), smaller parties, including the Taiwan People’s Party (TPP) and New Power Party, have also fielded candidates in the races.
What are the key races to watch?
Both the ruling DPP and the KMT have focused on races in the island’s six municipalities: Taipei, New Taipei, and Taoyuan in the north, Taichung in central Taiwan, and Tainan and Kaohsiung in the south.
The DPP is hoping to build on the seven seats it holds and win big in the six municipalities to extend its influence and secure the presidency when Tsai steps down in May 2024.
Similarly, the KMT is seeking to expand control to several other cities and counties beyond the 14 it now holds and increase its chances of challenging the DPP for the island’s top post.
The KMT holds New Taipei City and Taichung, while the DPP controls Taoyuan, Tainan and Kaohsiung. The mayoral post in Taipei will be vacant after TPP’s Ko Wen-je steps down in late December, and the same goes for the post in Taoyuan after outgoing mayor Cheng Wen-tsan ends his second four-year term.
People walk past campaign signs in Taipei, Taiwan on Sunday. Photo: AP
“The KMT is expected to perform better in the local government races as most of its candidates are running for a second term and are able to enjoy the political resources they have controlled as heads of their cities or counties,” said Arthur Zhin-sheng Wang, secretary general of the Asia-Pacific Elite Interchange Association, a Taipei-based think tank.
Meanwhile, the DPP needs to field newcomers for the seven seats it holds as four of the incumbents, including Taoyuan mayor Cheng, must step down at the end of their second terms.
“This means the DPP is fighting an uphill battle and may not be able to perform well, especially in the face of voters’ dissatisfaction over some of the DPP government policies and the traditional belief that an opposition victory in the local polls serves to check and balance the governing authorities,” Wang said.
What is at stake?
If the KMT, which is expected to secure seats in the municipalities of New Taipei and Taichung, can win both Taipei and Taoyuan, it would be considered a big victory for the party, Wang said.
“This would mean Tsai might have to resign as head of the DPP to take the blame for the electoral defeats, which would hasten the pace of her becoming a lame duck in her remaining term,” said Max Lo, executive director of the Taiwan International Strategic Study Society think tank.
If the DPP is able to win the capital city and retain Taoyuan, Tsai would have no problem continuing as the party’s head, as that outcome would be considered a big victory for the DPP, Lo said.
Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen (left) has framed the election as a referendum on her leadership. Photo: AFP
“This would delay the pace of her becoming a lame duck and avoid an early challenge by her deputy, Vice-President William Lai,” Lo said.
For the KMT, a big victory would help secure the chance for its chairman, Eric Chu Li-luan, to run as the party’s candidate for the island’s top post in January 2024, Wang said.
“But it could also spell the start of infighting within the KMT as some party heavyweights might want the highly popular New Taipei mayor Hou Yu-ih to run for president instead,” Wang said.
Unlike Lai, who has long been viewed by the DPP as the party’s sole candidate to succeed Tsai, the KMT has yet to decide who to run in 2024, Wang said.
Will playing the ‘nationalism card’ work?
Saturday’s polls will show whether the DPP’s “China threat” card is facing diminishing returns, said Wen-Ti Sung, a lecturer at the Australian National University.
“So far it has been met with apathy in [Taiwanese] media, who argue it’s out of place to link Taiwan’s survival with local (include township level) elections,” he tweeted on Wednesday.
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Citing persistent military threats from Beijing, both the DPP and Tsai have said the island would only be able to stand up to mainland China and protect Taiwan by voting for the ruling party.
“If this arguable overuse makes the [Taiwanese] public sphere gradually immune from the DPP’s nationalism card on election day, it may potentially carry over into the 2024 presidential election – the primary season for which will start in 3-4 months. Not great for DPP,” Sung said.
In a campaign video message on Thursday, Tsai called the weekend’s polls a referendum on her leadership, saying voting for DPP candidates was a vote for her and her commitment to “take good care” of Taiwan.
