In a speech on Britain’s relationship with China, UK foreign secretary James Cleverly warns a war across theTaiwan strait would have global repercussions, urging against unilateral action altering the status quo. And while acknowledging China represents an authoritarian tradition at odds with Britain’s, he said he wanted Britain to engage directly with China, bilaterally and multilaterally, in a reflection of its ‘global importance’. ‘We have an obligation to future generations to engage because otherwise we would be failing in our duty to sustain – and shape – the international order.…
Tag: International trade
If China invaded Taiwan it would destroy world trade, says James Cleverly
A Chinese invasion of Taiwan would destroy world trade, and distance would offer no protection to the inevitable catastrophic blow to the global economy, the UK’s foreign secretary, James Cleverly, warned in a set piece speech on Britain’s relations with Beijing. In remarks that differ from French president Emmanuel Macron’s attempts to distance Europe from any potential US involvement in a future conflict over Taiwan, and which firmly support continued if guarded engagement with Beijing, Cleverly said “no country could shield itself from the repercussions of a war in Taiwan”.…
Global economic forecast for 2023? A stormy start followed by a ray of hope
Investors should brace for another turbulent year in the financial markets, economists have warned as central banks fight inflation, China reopens its economy after Covid-19 restrictions and the Ukraine war pushes the global economy towards recession. The first half of the new year is likely to be choppy, according to Wall Street predictions, after global markets suffered their biggest fall since the 2008 financial crisis last year. But the US S&P 500 is still expected to end 2023 a little higher than it began the year. The average target of…
China’s move to ease Covid travel restrictions lifts hopes for global economy
China’s decision to ease rules on travel in and out of the country, the world’s second-largest economy, has offered investors hope that it could soften the toll from higher interest rates on global stock markets and unblock supply chains amid a dark outlook for 2023. Chinese authorities said late on Monday that inbound travellers would not have to quarantine on arrival, from 8 January onward. The announcement marked the latest in a series of steps to reopen the country, which is home to vital global supply chains and 1.4 billion…
The pendulum swung against globalisation in 2022 – and that’s no bad thing | Larry Elliott
This was supposed to be the year when things returned to normal. After the collapse of activity during the months of lockdown in 2020 and the supply bottlenecks of 2021, the hope was that 2022 would call time on an era of seemingly permanent crisis. It hasn’t quite turned out like that. Indeed, 2022 is shaping up to be a pivotal year for the global economy, taking its place alongside the end of the Bretton Woods fixed exchange rate system in 1971, the reunification of Germany in 1990 and the…
Zero-Covid policy is costing China its role as the world’s workshop
The anti-lockdown unrest gripping China has forced the authorities in Beijing to respond by easing some restrictions in big manufacturing centres, as they map out a “new stage and mission” in the country’s deeply unpopular zero-Covid policy. There are concerns that more freedom of movement could allow the virus to rip through a population where immunity is lower than in the west. Those health risks mean the “world’s workshop” is heading for a difficult winter, casting a shadow over the prospects for international trade. Western companies have learned lessons from…
We need to talk about Xi Jinping: G7’s discord over powerful trading partner
Western powers in the G7 group of nations are failing to coordinate their China strategies, senior western officials admit, adding that the need to do so has been given sharp impetus by Xi Jinping’s consolidation of power at this month’s Communist party congress. The G7’s poor coordination reflects a deep disagreement, also reflected within the EU, about whether dialogue and trade with China have a future if Beijing is seen as an existential threat that requires strict strategic controls on economic ties. Chinese aggression At the week-long Communist party congress,…
Growing pains: China’s faltering economy tests leadership’s nerve
On his tour of the southern Chinese city of Shenzhen last week, Li Keqiang, the premier, tried to send some positive energy at a time many citizens have been complaining of economic hardship. “China’s opening will continue. The Yellow river and the Yangtze river will not flow backward,” Li said, striking an upbeat tone while visiting Yantian Port, a gateway to Europe and North America, two of China’s biggest markets. “The waters of Yantian Port will also flow incessantly, and not only will continue to maintain your advantages, but also…
The world’s engines are spluttering: IMF points to deeper problems beyond 2022
The International Monetary Fund’s revised World Economic Outlook is sobering. It is rare for the organisation to revise down sharply its projections for economic growth only one quarter into the calendar year. Yet in this case, it has done so for 86% of its 190 member countries, resulting in a decline of almost one percentage point in global growth for 2022 – from 4.4% to 3.6%. Moreover, this forecast is accompanied by a significant increase in projected inflation, and all this bad news is packaged in a wrapping of deeper…
China’s trade with Russia up by 12% in March from a year earlier
China’s trade with Russia jumped by more than 12% in March from a year earlier, outpacing the increase in Beijing’s trade with the rest of the world, according to Chinese customs data. Shipments to and from Russia increased 12.76% in March to $11.67bn, Chinese customs data showed on Wednesday, slowing from 25.7% growth in February, when Russia launched its invasion of Ukraine. The decline in trade with Russia was less severe than the decline with other countries, fuelling concerns that China has maintained strong links with Moscow despite the atrocities…